Saturday, April 27

Global Economics

Looking at economic forecasts for the global economy and the impact of national and multinational policies.

U.S. Massive Deficits Pose ‘Significant Risk’ for the Global Economy
19Apr By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Brief

U.S. Massive Deficits Pose ‘Significant Risk’ for the Global Economy

IMF Warns the United States and China about Massive Deficits April 19, 2024--Even though consumer prices are coming down, high interest rates due to U.S. and China's deficits pose significant costs to other countries and carry a risk to global financial stability, the International Monetary Fund warned this week. "Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar. It pushes up funding costs in the rest of the world, thereby exacerbating existing fragilities and risks," said Vitor Gaspar, IMF director of fiscal affairs. Rising Debt Poses Costs By the end of the decade, global debt is likely to reach 99 percent of global GDP. The rising debt levels are increasing "volatility in the United States, raising risks elsewhere th...
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U.S. And China Establish Economic ‘Working Groups’
22Sep By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Globalization, Global Disintegration, Types of News: Bit

U.S. And China Establish Economic ‘Working Groups’

Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo Likely To Lead Talks For U.S. Interests September 22, 2023—The United States and China are establishing "structured channels for frank and substantive discussions on economic and financial policy matters," according to the U.S. Treasury Department. The department released a statement today saying it is establishing working groups with China's Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China to exchange information on a regular basis. The communication channels follow a series of diplomatic meetings between the two countries, the largest economies in the world. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo is likely to lead both working groups for the United States. For China, the talks will take place at the vice minister level.
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Big Banks See Slower Growth In China
13Sep By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Bit

Big Banks See Slower Growth In China

September 13, 2023— China is estimating its economic growth to average 5 percent this year. However, even that modest forecast might be rosy. Six international banks, including JP Morgan, Barclays, and UBS, have downgraded their economic forecasts for China in light of the country's falling exports and persistent problems in the real estate sector, according to reporting by the South China Morning Post. Estimates for annual GDP from financial institutions range from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent. SCMP's Ralph Jennings suggests China's economic problems could have global ripple effects for businesses, particularly for developing countries that rely on trade with China. The news comes at a time when economists are warning about stability in the global economy.
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Watchdog Warns About Global Economy Ahead Of G20
5Sep By Patti MohrNo Comments
Finance, Investing, Global Economics, Types of News: Brief

Watchdog Warns About Global Economy Ahead Of G20

Historically High Debt Beginning To Feel Credit Crunch From Higher Interest Rates September 5, 2023—As world leaders travel to New Delhi, India for the G20 Summit, the head of an international body monitoring global finance issued a stark warning about debt and stability. In short, interest rate hikes since March 2022 are beginning to impact markets, according to Klaas Knot, a Dutch economist and chair of the Financial Stability Board. 'Historically High Debt' Writing on behalf of the board, Knot warned that a combination of factors could "impair the capacity of borrowers to service the historically high stock of outstanding global debt." Those factors include high global debt, interest rate hikes, persistent inflation, tighter financial markets, and a slowing economy, ac...
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Despite High Interest Rates, U.S. Housing Sector Sees An Usual Rise
17Aug By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Brief

Despite High Interest Rates, U.S. Housing Sector Sees An Usual Rise

Housing Costs Squeeze Buyers August 17, 2023--Even as mortgage rates in the United States hover at a 22-year high, the housing sector continues to defy logic by rising in price. In fact, increasing costs of shelter in the United States were "by far the largest contributor" to the inflation rate, according to the latest CPI report. The cost of housing rose by an annualized rate of 7.7 percent last month. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate stood at 3.2 percent. The unusual resilience to rate increases by the Federal Reserve has led Goldman Sachs to revise its prediction for the sector from a drop of 2.2 percent to a rise of 1.8 percent, several news outlets including Axios reported. An 'Aberration' of Trends The investment firm described the unusual occurrence as "unsust...
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Global Housing Prices See Both Modest Dips And Gains In 2023
25Jul By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Bit

Global Housing Prices See Both Modest Dips And Gains In 2023

July 25, 2023—With some exceptions, the prices of housing have dipped modestly in 2023 in response to higher interest rates, according to Fitch Ratings. In its midyear report, Fitch found that nominal housing prices reacted to rising interest rates with slight drops in prices in most countries under its radar. The exceptions were Australia, Denmark, Japan, Italy, Colombia, Mexico, and Spain, where prices rose. Factors that are impacting prices include inventory, wages, labor markets, government support for homebuyers, building costs, as well as interest rates.
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United States: Inflation Moderates In March
12Apr By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Bit

United States: Inflation Moderates In March

Housing Prices Rise While Energy Costs Fall April 12, 2023—Consumer prices still rose in March in the United States, yet they rose less than they have in previous months. The Consumer Price Index for all items increased by 0.1 percent for the month, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past year, prices as a whole increased by 5 percent—the smallest spike since May 2021. The category for shelter, specifically rent and housing prices, increased the most. It rose by 0.6 percent in March and 8.2 percent in the past year. Meanwhile, the cost of energy commodities and services started coming down by 4.6 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March.
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Economic Sands Shift: ‘B’ Is For ‘Beginning’
16Mar By Patti MohrNo Comments
Currency, Debt, National Budgets & Interest Rates, Europe, EU, Eurozone, Finance, Investing, Global Economics, Types of News: Videos

Economic Sands Shift: ‘B’ Is For ‘Beginning’

March 16, 2023-Recent turmoil in the banking sector in the United States and Europe poses a challenge to governments facing inflation. Here's my take. Due to the lag effect of central bank policies, what we are seeing in the banking sector is a beginning not an end to financial troubles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyBfFctQYn4
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U.S. Economy Is Still Hot
17Feb By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Brief

U.S. Economy Is Still Hot

Gas And Food Prices Continue To Climb; Jobs Market Still Tight Despite Layoffs February 17, 2023—The U.S. economy continues to run more hot than cold, despite previous forecasts that a recession would loom early in 2023. The IMF had projected a steep decline for the global economy at the beginning of the year. Then, the World Bank said the world was "perilously close" to falling into a recession. But despite the doom and gloom, the U.S. economy keeps growing. Prices are climbing; the job market remains tight even as certain economic sectors deliver layoffs; and U.S. equity markets are rising. Inflation: Prices Still Rising Inflation in the United States remains high, even as the overall CPI figure comes down from its peaks of 8.6 percent and 9.1 percent of an annualize...
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Which Countries Escape The Economic Gloom?
11Jan By Patti MohrNo Comments
Global Economics, Types of News: Brief

Which Countries Escape The Economic Gloom?

Global Growth Forecasts For 2023 January 11, 2023—The global economy is "perilously close to falling into a recession," the World Bank warned yesterday, with a forecast that projects 1.7 growth for the world. That projection is down significantly from the bank's forecast last June. Persistently high inflation, rising interest rates, and weakening confidence are bringing growth estimates down in an atmosphere of gloom. "The global economy is on a razor's edge. Even a small shock can trigger an outright recession," said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group. "The slowdown is a very sharp one, and it is broad-based." Economic Growth Continues While that is gloomy news, it might not be as bad as it sounds. For instance, a lot of economies are likely to con...
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