April 14, 2026—The International Monetary Fund warned of market stress, higher inflation, and disproportionate harm to emerging markets due to ongoing war in the Middle East. The fund adjusted its global economic growth projections downward from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026, with the largest decline impacting countries in the Middle East and Central Asia.
The full report for the “World Economic Outlook” and related materials won’t be available until April 30, 2026. A second report, the Global Financial Stability Report, warned of risks to financial stability.
Writing in an IMF post accompanying the report, Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, suggested the economic resilience to date should not be taken for granted.
“The key financial stability risks do not lie in the initial shock itself, but in amplification channels that could turn market volatility and sell-offs into more acute stress. Elevated leverage in parts of the nonbank financial sector, increased concentration in equity markets, and historically tight credit spreads all raise the potential for abrupt forced-selling and sudden liquidity strains through margin and collateral calls.”
Turmoil in Energy, Food, Fertilizer
Separately, on Monday, the IMF held meetings with the International Energy Agency and World Bank to assess risks to the global economy amid the wars in the Middle East. They concluded with a warning:
“As we noted earlier this month, the impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries. The shock has led to higher oil, gas and fertilizer prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well. Some oil and gas producers in the Middle East have also seen a dramatic loss of export revenue.”
“The situation remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalize. Even after a resumption of regular shipping flows through the Strait, it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels—and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure. Due to supply disruptions, shortages of key inputs are likely to have implications for energy, food, and other industries. The war has also forcibly displaced people, impacted jobs, and reduced travel and tourism, which may take time to reverse.”
Growth Forecasts by Country
The IMF published the following growth forecasts by country:
- US: 2.3%
- Germany: 0.8%
- France: 0.9%
- Italy: 0.5%
- Spain: 2.1%
- UK: 0.8%
- Japan: 0.7%
- Canada: 1.5%
- China: 4.4%
- India: 6.5%
- Russia: 1.1%
- Brazil: 1.9%
- Mexico: 1.6%
- Saudi Arabia: 3.1%
- Nigeria: 4.1%
- South Africa: 1.0%
