G20 Inflation to Climb to 4.0 Percent in 2026
March 27, 2026—The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that rising energy prices and supply shocks due to war in the Middle East could increase global volatility and inflation. In a March report, Testing Resilience, the OECD said:
“The evolving conflict in the Middle East has human and economic costs for the countries directly involved, and will test the resilience of the global economy. A halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure or damage of energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers.”
Projections for growth vary widely by country. For example, the OECD predicts growth in the United States to moderate from 2.0 percent in 2026 to 1.7 percent in 2027. Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Brazil, and Argentina, could experience deeper reductions in economic growth. Meanwhile, other countries, such as Australia and South Africa, may weather the storm with moderate economic increases this year.
The intergovernmental body of 38 industrialized countries advises central banks to “remain vigilant” to respond to geopolitical and inflationary risks.
