An Update on the U.S. Midterm Elections Outlook
September 10, 2026—In what appears to be a desperate attempt to win political support ahead of the November midterm elections, President Donald Trump vowed to give every U.S. adult citizen $5,000 from the U.S. Treasury’s general fund if his Republican party maintains control of Congress.
“Only I can make this promise to you, and here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history we’ve never had anything like what’s happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success, economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” Trump said while promoting Republican candidates at a party convention in Texas. He added it would be, “very much like a successful company will do a cash distribution to its shareholders.”
It comes as the U.S. national debt breached $40 trillion, up from $37.4 trillion a year earlier. Interest payments on that debt are up to $1 trillion a year, the Congressional Budget Office reported. Globally, investors are losing confidence in sovereign debt. The U.S. borrowing costs on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to its highest level since 2007, just before the global financial crisis.
Cash Giveaway Cost, Ethics and Legality
To many, including his supporters, Trump’s promise to reward voters for an electoral win came across as a sign of desperation if not an all-out illegal bribe. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s White House chief of staff from 2019 to 2020, is one of them. In an interview with Fox Business News on Thursday, Mulvaney estimated the expense to the U.S. Treasury would reach $1.3 trillion and worsen inflation.
“The good news is I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Mulvaney said. “I’m not sure how they would do it legally. You can’t spend money unless Congress appropriates it.”
Other observers pointed out that U.S. law forbids candidates for office from paying people to either vote or not vote. Specifically, it is in U.S Code Title 18 Part 1 Chapter 29 on “expenditures to influence voting” that says:
“Whoever makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate; and Whoever solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote—Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.”
Democrats Running on ‘Affordability’ Theme
U.S. consumers across the country are facing higher costs for loans, insurance, energy, and staples, and Democrats are running on a theme of “affordability.” What that means in terms of policy ranges from vague language on bringing prices down to a larger socialist agenda of government control of health care and other services.
What is clear is that politicians who are listening to public concerns about prices at home are doing well in primaries and polls.
Holding an alternative event in Texas, Democrats focused on high costs. Matt Lagos, a voter in Dallas, Texas who works as a realtor, told a panel of local Democrats high costs of health insurance, housing, loans, and home insurance. People are “cash strapped. They are getting hit by inflation,” Lagos said. “People are hurting.”
Low Trust, Poor Performance Ratings
As the United States approaches the November 3 congressional elections, Trump’s approval ratings hover between 33 percent to 38 percent, depending on the poll. According to an NBC sample of 7,105 adults, only 16 percent “strongly approve” Trump’s job performance while 49 percent “strongly disapprove.”
Meanwhile, public trust in government information has also fallen across a range of issues since 2024. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts found that 53 percent of those surveyed find do not trust the Republican Party’s campaign messages as factual while 47 percent say the same thing about the Democratic Party’s messages.
What’s concerning for the sake of U.S. democracy is that only 34 percent of respondents said they “trust government certification of elections results a great deal or quite a bit.” Nearly half—46 percent of respondents—said they are “extremely or very concerned” the government will question or publicly discredit the election results.
U.S. Elections Outlook
Only 21 of the 435 House seats are competitive enough to be considered “toss-up” races, according to the Cook Political Report, with 48 more seats slightly competitive. Likewise, analysts see only six “toss-up” seats in the U.S. Senate, in Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, with six others in play. What’s important is that both chambers of Congress are undecided, in other words up for grabs.
Meanwhile, for his part, Trump insisted he is popular and is staking a claim on the November ballot.
“In actuality, I really am running. We don’t really know it but we are. I mean, we’re running together,” Trump said at the convention in Dallas. “We have to have Congress. We have to have the majorities. If we don’t have the majorities, so much can be lost.”
See story, “The Orange Chavez” for reflections on Trump’s Rhetoric and Style.
